Changing percentages key to understanding Battery

CHARLESTON, S.C. — It was a fascinating match for Charleston Battery against the Pittsburgh Riverhounds last week. A thrilling 3-3 draw before coming into Saturday’s match against the Tampa Bay Rowdies. What is most fascinating is a few differing percentages that provide some insight into how the Rowdies can win the match.

One data point that will play perfectly into how the Rowdies play is the difference between duels and aerial duels. In all duels, the Battery won 54.6 percent but in the air only won 47.2 percent. The Rowdies have been strong in the air all year and as such this plays perfectly into their hands, the thing to be mindful of is staying away from contests when the ball is on the ground.

There’s a significant dip in passing accuracy once Charleston got into the opponent’s half. Total accuracy was up at 75.1 percent but in the opponent’s half was 58 percent. That should encourage Tampa Bay to remain patient, sit back and let the pressure come, then take full advantage of the nose bleed that seems to happen and force a mistake.

That is coupled with how Charleston takes advantage, the Battery took seven of their 11 shots from inside the box. Again the Rowdies can be patient and wait, stealing possession back, they’ll have time.

That time will come at the other end of the park where Tampa Bay can take advantage of some poor defensive work from the Battery. Charleston missed too many tackles in the draw with the Riverhounds, only successfully completing 35.3 percent of tackles.

A notable thing that will help the Rowdies is how one-directional Charleston was. The Battery overwhelmingly attacked down the left, as can be seen in the above heat map, which means that the Tampa Bay defense can pull their work towards the left to stop those attacks.

Photo: Ross Almers Photography

Hartford finally blow down the Rowdies wall but still lose

HARTFORD, Conn. — While the Tampa Bay Rowdies‘ undefeated streak continued with a 2-1 win on Saturday the 95th-minute goal saw the clean sheet streak end at 891 minutes. The win happened by a familiar pattern of dominating in the air and stealing possession and the clean sheet streak ended thanks to relentless pressure.

When a team managed almost 60 percent possession you expect to at least score a goal and that’s what happened for Hartford Athletic on Saturday. It took until the fifth minute of stoppage time but the pressure that had been coming all match finally told.

The Rowdies put up a valiant effort to keep that clean sheet, making 36 clearances in the match, preventing the shot count from ballooning out as much as the box entries. That’s what kept the streak going as the Tampa Bay backline kept control of the match.

Tampa Bay Rowdies clearances and Interceptions chart (@ Hartford Athletic FC September 25 2021)

More strong defense was seen in the interception count, not counting clearances as an interception the Rowdies managed to intercept the ball 16 times. That led to a decreased amount of opportunities.

When the ball wasn’t cleared away the Athletic strikers just weren’t proving accurate enough, only 25 percent of the shots hit the target. By comparison, their opponents hit the mark over 55 percent of the time. That meant the Rowdies made use of the few opportunities that came their way, despite a penalty miss.

Yet again the Rowdies made better use of the first ball dominating in the air, winning 62.5 percent of the aerial duels. It’s a broken record at this point, but winning that first ball is a key to the way this team plays, especially in matches when they lose possession.

Photo courtesy Tampa Bay Rowdies

Clinical Nashville punish Miami

FORT LAUDERDALE— While Inter Miami CF finished the game with 10 men only one of the five goals it conceded to Nashville SC came after that 86th-minute red card which simply reflected the frustration Miami had. It wasn’t that they were outplayed in every area, despite the 5-1 scoreline, it was simply that Nashville created opportunities and Miami didn’t.

If there was ever a match that proved that possession is fairly modern football this was it. Miami managed a 54.7 percent share of possession but still lost by four goals. That’s because it’s not about having the ball, it’s about what you do with it.

Despite passing accurately (89.5 percent) the Heron’s couldn’t convert that into clear opportunities. That’s because as they got closer to the goal that passing accuracy plummeted down to a dire 21.1 percent when crossing the ball into the box. Compare that to Nashville’s 43.8 percent crossing accuracy and you begin to see how the deficit came to be.

Nashville’s Passing network
Miami’s passing network

The issue of that declining accuracy can be seen in the two passing networks. In Miami’s, it’s clear how deep Gonzalo Higuain (who did manage to score) was pinned for most of the match, by comparison, CJ Sapong and Hany Mukhtar are much further up the pitch, on average, to receive the ball. Another telling difference in these passing networks is directional movement. For Miami, it was predominately across the back-line, for Nashville there the thickest line is actually in midfield moving the ball forward.

Shooting and creating chances were the other big differences in the match. This is clearly seen in the above shot-chart. Miami mostly shot from poor positions and relied almost exclusively on Higuain. Nashville, on the other hand, had shots from a wider variety of places and positions, which led to more opportunities even if some didn’t come off (look at CJ Sapong’s 10th-minute shot). That led to a downright massive xG difference, with both teams finishing above the mark. Inter only managed a 0.5 xG while Nashville managed a huge three and still came out ahead.

It’s a worrying trend, Miami should have the talent, but the tactical decisions in the match and the lack of forward movement is holding the team back, it’s better than this, but at a rough stretch of the season, difficult matches like this can happen.

Photo courtesy Major League Soccer/Inter Miami CF

Accurate crossing makes up for other deficiencies for Rowdies against Atlanta

KENNESAW, Ga. — Following up from the dominance of the New York Red Bulls II match the Atlanta United 2 game was always going to bring the Tampa Bay Rowdies down to earth somewhat. Thankfully for the Rowdies that wasn’t on the scoreboard but in a lot of areas they were outplayed meaning a few key numbers really mattered.

The Rowdies were heavily out-possessed, only managing 35.6 percent of the share of the ball. That saw ATL UTD 2 pass the ball around a lot more and try to build things up. But what stopped that leading to complete control of the match? The inexperience that allowed Tampa Bay to dominate the aerial duels (winning 67.7 percent of them) leading to that initial control, something the team has done all year, a constant refrain in these stories throughout the season.

Highlights: Atlanta United 2 v Tampa Bay Rowdies – USL Championship – September 18 2021

One thing that really helped Atlanta keep possession was how many times the players were fouled. The Rowdies defense was at times overzealous and gave away 19 fouls. That stopped them from winning the ball back and cutting into that possession statistic.

What was pleasing for the Rowdies was the crossing accuracy, Tampa Bay managed a 27.8 percent crossing accuracy in the match which allowed the team better looks at goal. Most of the away shots happened in the box at the end of a good cross. What was really notable was how those crosses all hit almost exactly the same spot which can be seen in the adjacent crossing graphic.

It wasn’t a complete performance, defensively the team wasn’t quite as good as it should have been, and has been at other stages this season. But the defense did enough for a clean sheet. What was interesting in this match was how offensively the Rowdies were much better than the NYRBII match but put in four fewer goals. Football is a funny old game sometimes.

Photo courtesy Tampa Bay Rowdies

Two-man deficit too much for Orlando City

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Photo: Orlando City SC

ORLANDO — It was always going to be hard when Nani was sent off in the 35th minute and Orlando ended up finishing with nine men which saw Montreal take a 4-2 win over the Lions. So apart from the obvious what went wrong? Ultimately everything that led to the Montreal win came because of the red card.

Nani’s red card was certainly a big mistake from such a veteran player. Getting one yellow card so early is bad enough but then committing an obvious foul while on the yellow is unforgivable and will surely generate a fine from the club as well as from the league. The second yellow card was also clear cut, blatantly pulling back an attacking player to prevent an attack is obviously deliberately obstructing a goal-scoring opportunity.

Having been a man down for almost an hour made it easy for Montreal to do what they wanted and have plenty of space. All that space allowed Impact to have a phenomenal passing accuracy of 92.6 percent, routinely passing it around the back to wait for the opportunity to pounce. It wasn’t just that CF Montreal was more accurate they also made far more passes, managing over 150 more passes than the hosts.

Highlights: Orlando City SC v CF Montreal – MLS – September 15 2021

When a team has a man disadvantage there are a few things that a team can do to try and stop attacks coming through and one of those is playing a strong offside trap. That is an option Orlando chose not to take, only catching Montreal offside once in the match, a missed opportunity.

Obviously, fouls were a big part of the story and with two red cards, it would be easy to think the Lions were just giving away too many fouls. That wasn’t the case, Orlando only gave away 10 fouls in the match, just one more than Montreal. That meant that 20 percent of the fouls resulted in a red card, 40 percent resulting in a yellow.

It wasn’t all bad news for Orlando. Despite being a man down so early OCSC managed to create some clear chances and scored twice. The Lions finished with an xG of 0.7 just 1.8 behind the winners. That was a good sign going forward that despite the adversity the chances were there.

Pressure tells as Miami clinches late win

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Photo courtesy Inter Miami CF

TORONTO — It took a late penalty for Inter Miami CF to overcome a ten-man Toronto FC at BMO Stadium on Tuesday. The win extended Miami’s winning run but it should have been much better, looking at some statistics was key.

It’s easy to conclude that Miami wouldn’t have won this match without the man advantage and that’s clear when looking at possession, while the Herons won the possession battle it was only by less than one percent. They were also outshot 10-9 the same margin for shots on target as well 4-3. Additionally, Miami was too often caught offside, being offside six times in the match ruining good build-up.

Where the man advantage showed was in crossing, with space down the wing Miami was able to send in 17 crosses, although often they were futile.

Highlights – Toronto FC v Inter Miami CF – MLS – September 14 2021

 What helped Miami out was clinical passing as they built pressure more and more on the reds hoping it would tell and it finally told in the 95th minute. Passing in the final third was especially accurate, managing a 78 percent accuracy, and that is what led to the mistake that led to the goal.

Miami really stepped up the chances in the second half and especially from the 75th minute which pushed the team up to a 1.4 xG while keeping Toronto under one. In the end, it was all about creating an opportunity to get a mistake and take advantage which finally happened at the death.

Efficiency and defense get Miami a vital win

FORT LAUDERDALE — Inter Miami CF got a much-needed win on Saturday, defeating Columbus Crew SC to stay in the conversation in the Eastern Conference playoff race. That result came from working hard on defense and being efficient with what came their way.

The strong defensive effort is most clearly seen in the number of clearances made by the Miami defense. A staggering 20 clearances showed that the hosts could get the job done and get in where they needed to, vitally keeping Columbus off the score sheet.

As a result of those clearances, the crossing was restricted to just 15.4 percent accuracy and Miguel Berry was left completely isolated. The passing network to the left shows just how deep the Crew strikers came to get the ball and how little crosses made it in from the wing. As a result, the Columbus defense was too predictable and that made it easier for the Miami defense to deal with.

Highlights – Inter Miami CF v Toronto FC – MLS – September 11 2021

The defense was also coming up strong in the one-on-one battles. Inter Miami won the bulk of the duels taking a 48-35 margin in the vital statistic. That meant Miami was stopping Columbus from doing what they wanted with the ball more than they were being stopped.

Offensively the Herons were just more efficient. Finishing level on xG with 0.6 but doing that with two fewer shots, meaning that they were having better looks than Columbus which was how they got the three points.

Photo courtesy Inter Miami CF

Duels help Rowdies dominate Baby Bulls

ST. PETERSBURG — The Tampa Bay Rowdies demolished New York Red Bulls II on Saturday and it’s easy to just say this was because of good shooting. While that was certainly part of it aerial duels were the key to laying a platform that could lead to good shooting.

Aerial duels is a statistic with one of the biggest disparities in the match and the one that was the most key to leading to the win for the Rowdies. Controlling 62.1 percent of aerial duels allowed them to control the initial ball when it was released from the two goalkeepers and that allowed them to then set up how things would be played.

This can also be seen when we look at where the match was played. Looking at the above heat map you can see that the match was almost entirely played in the NYRB II half and rarely in the Tampa Bay half, most of the action there coming from back-passes.

Part of the issue for the Red Bulls II was the crossing, the Rowdies defense made 16 clearances as part of another strong defensive performance. That kept the Jersey-based side down to a 7.1 percent crossing accuracy from their 14 crosses, making it almost impossible to create chances from the wings, which was where most of the attack from the visitors came.

Knowing that the crossing wasn’t going to work forced New York into shots from worse areas, which led to an xG of just 0.5. The Red Bulls II’s best chance was an xG of barely over 0.1 while the Rowdies managed chances at 0.3 (all resulting in goals). When your xG is poor it’s a sign that you shouldn’t be taking the shots from where you’re taking them, half of the visitors’ shots came from outside the box which made it hard to score.

It’s easy to overlook how good the Rowdies were defensively in this match but again they were over 50 percent on tackle success rate compared to their opponents who only managed 25 percent.

There were two jaw-dropping data points that the Rowdies lost; possession and interceptions. While it’s not unusual to win a match without winning possession it’s very unusual to win it by six goals while still losing possession. That’s what made winning those aerial duels so crucial, they could control the ball without holding it for the majority of the match.

Tampa Bay gave away an unbelievable 23 interceptions in the match, while it’s something that can be written off, only one of them was in their own half, it’s still something for the team to look at improving going into the next match.

Photo courtesy Tampa Bay Rowdies

Strong defense sees Rowdies get through the Battery

CHARLESTON, S.C. — Despite the Charleston Battery having a very defensive name it was the Tampa Bay Rowdies who held firm defensively on Tuesday to pull out a 1-0 win. It was the defense that led to the success of the visitors, continuing the trend.

Interceptions were a key part in stopping the Battery, denying the build-up, and stopping balls from getting forward. Most notably these interceptions were mostly coming from the left and three were high in the Battery half. Yet again it was an all-team defensive effort.

Tampa Bay made 10 interceptions in the match while only giving up three in a clinical performance at both ends of the park.

The defensive performance from the Rowdies forced Charleston into making poor shooting decisions, which led to the side taking eight of its 12 shots outside the box. As expected with that statistic, that led to a poor shooting accuracy just one shot on target from the battery for an 8.3 percent shooting accuracy rate.

By comparison, the Rowdies managed a 30 percent shooting accuracy rate with 70 percent of their shots coming from inside the box.

Yet again the Tampa Bay defense was strong and it was difficult to get past, while not perfect like the last match the Rowdies defense managed a 75 percent tackle success rate. Combined with the 10 interceptions this stopped Charleston from moving the ball forward and kept the Battery off the score sheet.

Photo courtesy Tampa Bay Rowdies

Rowdies use aerial dominance to overcome possession gap

ST. PETERSBURG — The Tampa Bay Rowdies celebrated Pride Night by taking down the Oakland Roots on Friday night and it was a clinical performance that saw them take the win at Al Lang Stadium. Clinical upfront and at the back, it was dominance in the air that helped the hosts control the match and get a comfortable 3-0 win.

Despite losing possession by 11 percentage points the Rowdies were still able to control the match by winning the aerial duels, allowing them to dictate how plays would start and control the match from the outset of the ball being released out the back. The Rowdies won 68 percent of those duels leading to the control that would help them out.

When looking at the shot chart the differences are stark, Tampa Bay managed 20 shots in the match, nine of them on target. It showed a phenomenal element of patience as the Rowdies took 13 shots inside the box and finished with a stunning 45 percent on target. By comparison, Oakland only hit the target once and had one shot by Emrah Klimenta that was especially bad, closer to the corner flag than the goal.

The one downside from an attacking perspective was crossing accuracy, which was a poor 12.5 percent. But with the way the Rowdies are playing right now, predominately through the middle, it’s not needed but doing poorly at it limits the options and having limited options makes you predictable.

For all that impressive attacking data the Rowdies managed one of the most stunning defensive statistics possible, achieving perfection in their tackling. This included several tackles further up the pitch showing that the defense was a full team effort, not just the back-line.

With two matches this week Tampa Bay will have to be at its best to keep the form going but the performance against Oakland was so clinical it’s hard to see where things will drop off.

Photo courtesy Tampa Bay Rowdies

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