How the Rowdies will repeat history

ST. PETERSBURG — There’s a trophy on the line on Saturday when the Tampa Bay Rowdies take on Louisville City FC at Al Lang Stadium on Saturday night. Like last year the Rowdies will have to overcome the perennial finalists to win the Eastern Conference title but this time it’s at home. They proved Louisville is beatable in the conference final and here are the areas that will make the difference this year.

Like many matches, Tampa Bay has played this year the aerial duels will matter, winning the ball in the air will be important. But that’s because, unlike other opponents, Lou City is also strong in the air and as such will fight hard for that first ball and who wins this battle as a whole will go a long way to deciding who will win the match and claim the berth in the USL Championship Game.

One thing that is interesting about how Louisville has played is their patience to get forward. That is most reflected in the offside count from last week. Against Charlotte, LCFC wasn’t caught offside all match. That could mean that the Rowdies shouldn’t bother but it also signals that playing a higher line may catch Louisville City off guard and change the game plan.

Going forward the Rowdies and Lou City play a similar game. Last week Louisville managed a crossing accuracy of 28.6 percent, showing that the team will work the ball to the wing and cross it in and it often works. A success rate that high is very good, especially when seeing that Louisville stopped Charlotte’s crosses, only allowing an 8.7 percent accuracy. That may force Tampa Bay to keep the ball on the ground more.

The patience that Louisville City FC plays with was reflected mostly in where the men in purple take their shots. All of their shots last week were from inside the box, 13 shots. That’s similar to how the Rowdies overcame Birmingham last week but it was unusual for the Rowdies to be that patient. It gives some insight into how the Rowdies should defend, there can be more space outside the box but a focus needs to be on shutting things down once the ball is within 18 yards.

The Tampa Bay Rowdies will go in as favorites, but Louisville City has proven time and time again that it can get the job done. This will be a tight match but if the Rowdies pay attention to what Louisville has shown them they will be able to take the trophy.

Photo courtesy Louisville City FC