ORLANDO – It’s easy to look at Orlando City’s 4-1 win over Chicago Fire on Saturday and think that they were utterly dominant in every area. But the Lions weren’t; this wasn’t a case of overpowering Chicago. It was merely taking advantage of the chances that came their way.
Both teams managed 19 shots, but when looking at the breakdown of those shots, it’s obvious how Orlando won.
With 11/19 shots off target, it was always going to be difficult for Chicago to get back this match. When you only manage three shots on target, you definitely can’t score three goals.
It’s not like Chicago’s looks were terrible looks. The expected goals (xG) for the Fire in the match was 3.95, which actually meant that the visitors had the more likely chances. Orlando’s xG was only 2.55. What this means is that the Fire had plenty of good goalscoring chances but failed to make them count. Meanwhile, the hosts outpaced their xG, managing an xG difference of 1.45.
Some of this was advantageous. The first goal by Chris Mueller is a classic example.
The pass to Mueller creates an excellent opportunity that sees Chicago scrambling; it’s an ideal opportunity.
But then Mueller has to transfer to his preferred foot, which allows Alvaro Medran to close him down. Still, because the Orlando man keeps his boot out, it deflects back off of Mueller and in. It’s a goal that exceeds the xG for the situation and a tough break for Chicago.
Conversely, the second goal is one where you have a high xG shot that results in a goal. A cross to a mostly open Nani in the center of the box, that’s a situation you’d demand Orlando scores in. The third goal was a similar xG situation to the first. There were plenty of times the Lions tried to score, but none of them were perfect, the best look was the one that got the goal, but even that was somewhat lucky.
Meanwhile, the fourth goal saw Benji Michel make the space to improve the xG on the shot and make the goal, 2.55, as a match xG would check out. For Chicago, its only goal came from the spot, which is automatically assigned .76 xG meaning that Medran’s miss adds a significant xG factor to Chicago for no reward.
Florida Soccer Report 